The No. 9 Duke Blue Devils aim to keep a four-game winning streak alive in a high-profile matchup on Saturday evening. Duke visits Chapel Hill to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in the first matchup between the Tobacco Road rivals during the 2021-22 season. Duke is 18-3 overall and 8-2 against ACC opponents this season. UNC is 16-6 with eight wins in 11 games against conference foes.
Caesars Sportsbook lists the Blue Devils as three-point road favorites for this 6 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 151.5 in the latest Duke vs. North Carolina odds. Before making any North Carolina vs. Duke picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,400 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Duke vs. UNC, and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college basketball odds and betting lines for UNC vs. Duke:
- Duke vs. North Carolina spread: Duke -3
- Duke vs. North Carolina over-under: 151.5 points
- Duke vs. North Carolina money line: Duke -160, UNC +140
- DUKE: The Blue Devils are 3-2 against the spread in road games
- UNC: The Tar Heels are 7-5 against the spread in home games
Featured Game | North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils
Why Duke can cover
Duke projects to have the best player on the floor in Paolo Banchero. The 6-foot-10 forward is expected to be a top-three pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, and Banchero is averaging 17.8 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. Duke is also deep and talented, leading to effective units on both offense and defense. The Blue Devils rank in the top 20 nationally in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and Duke is elite in key areas.
The Blue Devils commit a turnover on only 15.1 percent of possessions, and Duke secures more than 31 percent of available rebounds on the offensive glass. Duke also leads the country in free-throw rate allowed on defense, while also leading the ACC in defensive efficiency. Opponents are shooting only 29.5 percent from 3-point range and 45.3 percent on 2-point attempts against Duke, and the Blue Devils have a 13.2 percent block rate and a 10.6 percent steal rate, showcasing the team’s physicality and athleticism.
Why North Carolina can cover
UNC’s offense has been effective this season. The Tar Heels are shooting 38.5 percent from 3-point range, No. 15 in the country, and North Carolina is making 76 percent of free throw attempts. UNC is very good in ball security, committing a turnover on only 16.5 percent of possessions, and the Tar Heels are securing more than 30 percent of missed shots on the offensive glass. Duke is below-average in turnover creation and defensive rebounding from a statistical standpoint.
That combination gives North Carolina a projected edge in the turnover battle, and UNC is No. 3 in the ACC in defensive efficiency. The Tar Heels are elite on the defensive glass, grabbing 79.8 percent of available rebounds, and North Carolina is very good in free- throw prevention and 2-point defense. Duke is outside of the top 200 in free-throw creation rate on offense, playing into North Carolina’s hands.
How to make UNC vs. Duke picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 149 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in over 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the model’s picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Duke vs. UNC? And which side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $2,400 on its top-rated college basketball picks the last five years, and find out.